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All Things Macro

Darius recently sat down with Nick Halaris to discuss proper risk management, the labor market, inflation, asset markets, and much more.

If you missed the interview, here are three takeaways from the conversation that have significant implications for your portfolio: 

1. Investors Are Doing A Great Disservice To Themselves By Not Being Bayesian

At 42 Macro, we use three core tenants to form our systematic macro risk management process:

We urge our readers to infuse proper risk management in their investment strategies. We welcome you to use our tools if you want to gain a systematic edge in the market: https://42macro.com/sampleresearch.

2. Labor Hoarding Has Contributed To The Resilience Of The US Economy

The most recent US Total Labor Force SA reading was 167 million people – a value below its trendline since 2009. 

Conversely, Gross Domestic Income recovered its trendline approximately 18 months ago and remains above it. 


The discrepancy in strength between the two indicators suggests there is a large amount of cash in the economy that can be used to demand goods and services but insufficient labor to supply those goods and services.

3. History Tells Us The Fed Must Break The Economy to Achieve Its Price Stability Mandate

We analyzed every recession since 1969 and found that, on a median basis, core PCE inflation is almost always flat-to-up in the year leading up to a recession.

Historically, inflation does not break down without a recession.

Both this study and our HOPE+I framework confirm that inflation is a lagging indicator, and we believe it will again fail to fall below the Fed’s 2% target without a recession.

That’s a wrap! 

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Evidence Of A Potential Wage-Price Spiral

The ~150,000 member United Auto Workers (UAW) union has declared “war” on Detroit’s big three auto makers GM $GM, Ford $F, and Stellantis $STLAM IM, threatening a strike by September 15 if the companies fail to acquiesce to demands that include a +46% wage increase and a decline in the work week to 32 hours. If a new collective bargaining agreement cannot be achieved by the deadline, the strike will be joined by Unifor — Canada’s largest labor union with ~315,000 total workers and ~18,000 auto workers.

Stories like this are supportive of our view that the narrative around inflation is likely to shift from “immaculate disinflation” to “sticky inflation” within 3-6 months. We have been keen to call out the elevated probability of a soft landing in the US economy. While a soft landing is not our modal outcome, we believe it is a scenario worth educating you on because a soft landing in the economy is highly likely to result in a soft landing in inflation relative to the Fed’s 2% target — which Powell went out of his way to quadruple down on last Friday at Jackson Hole.

No firm on global Wall Street has had a more accurate view on the resiliency of the US economy than @42Macro has for the past year and, as a result, a better call on bonds. We still see more fixed income volatility in the months ahead because we believe the consensus narrative surrounding inflation is likely to deteriorate before the recession hits.

Odds Are You Suck at Predicting, So Stop

Odds Are You Suck at Predicting, So Stop

Now that we have your attention, let’s spend the next 90 seconds together helping you become a better investor:

Stop trying to predict everything and join the systematic investing revolution benefitting thousands of 42 Macro clients worldwide. We do as much fundamental research as any firm on global Wall Street regarding what is likely to happen in financial markets, but we do not let those views influence our investment decisions.

The only information that impacts our portfolio recommendations is A) what is actually happening in the economy (not to be confused with what we expect to happen); and B) how what is actually happening has historically influenced asset market performance. The alternative to our systematic, trend-following approach is blowing up your or your clients’ account(s) thinking you can top and bottom tick asset markets with any consistency.

Our Macro Weather Model is the cutting-edge quantitative tool that 42 Macro clients rely upon to nowcast A and backtest B, in real-time, on a rolling basis:

 CLICK HERE to download our full Macro Weather Model slide deck for today, August 25th, 2023.

 CLICK HERE to see our Macro Weather Model in action across our various research products.

For those of you that now understand the value of adding a Bayesian research and risk management overlay to your investment process, we look forward to helping you improve both your investment performance and investing acumen.For the rest of you, best of luck with your 2024 predictions! We genuinely hope they aren’t as off target as your Aug-19, Aug-20, Aug-21, and Aug-22 predictions likely were about 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023. Have a great day!

What is Making the U.S. Economy so Resilient?

This week, Darius sat down with Maggie Lake from Real Vision to discuss the resiliency of the US economy, the housing market, and much more.

If you missed the interview, we have you covered. Here are three takeaways from the conversation that have significant implications for your portfolio: 

1. The Resiliency of the US Economy Will Likely Continue 

Our research shows the US economy has nowcast itself into “GOLDILOCKS” for the past five months. GOLDILOCKS is a regime marked by growth trending higher and inflation trending lower.

The strength of the economy will likely continue because:

2. New Home Sales Are Surging Because The Existing Home Sales Market Has Been Starved of Supply

Today, homeowners are unwilling to sell their homes and trade their ~3.5% mortgage (the effective mortgage rate nationally) for the current market rate of ~7%.

This supply shortage is causing a spike in new home builds:

3. “Bidenomics” Is Also Contributing to Our “Resilient US Economy” Theme

The US economy is experiencing a record non-war, non-recession budget deficit under the current administration.

Last year, the deficit was -3.7% of GDP. 

Today, it is -8.4%.

That 470 basis point difference equates to approximately $1.3 trillion of incremental fiscal stimulus supplied to the US economy, further contributing to its resiliency. 

That’s a wrap! 

If you found this blog post helpful:

  1. Go to www.42macro.com to unlock actionable, hedge-fund caliber investment insights.
  2. RT this thread and follow @42Macro and @42MacroWeather.
  3. Have a great day!

Even Higher For Much Longer

Global bond yields hit their highest level since 2008 as investors were forced by the data we have been highlighting to reprice economic resiliency in places like the US and Japan, as well as sticky inflation in places like the Eurozone and UK.

Last week’s Industrial Production (+210bps to a 2mo high 3mo SAAR of -0.9% in July), Capacity Utilization (+70bps to a 2mo high of 79.3% in July), Building Permits (+590bps to a 3mo high 3mo SAAR of 7.1% in July), Housing Starts (+2,560bps to a 2mo high 3mo SAAR of 30.9% in July), and NY Fed Services Activity Survey (+0.6pts to 0.6 in August; highest since Sep-22) were each marginally confirming of our “resilient US economy” theme.

Market participants are increasingly accepting the “higher for longer” guidance we have seen from a handful major central banks — most notably the Federal Reserve.

Floor policy rate expectations (min value on OIS curve out 2yrs) for the ECB, Fed, and BOE have climbed +3bps, +39bps, and +37bps MoM, respectively.

That’s dragged 10yr Nominal German Bund, US Treasury, and UK Gilt Yields up +18bps, +48bps, +37bps, respectively, over that same duration.

The 10yr Nominal JGB Yield — which is effectively managed by the BOJ — is even up +22bps MoM.

Turbulent Markets Ahead?

Last week, Darius sat down with Paul Barron to discuss global bond markets, #inflation, #bitcoin, and more.

If you missed the interview, we have you covered. Here are three takeaways from the conversation that every investor needs to see: 

1. Volatility Has Returned to Global Bond Markets

Over the past month, there has been a striking shift in bond market volatility:

Incremental confirmation of the economic resiliency in the US and Japan and the resiliency of inflation in the Eurozone and the UK have been the driving factors of this uptick in bond market volatility.

2. The Resiliency of The US Economy Will Likely Cause Inflation to Persist

Since last fall, inflation has declined in an “immaculate” way; historically, inflation has only broken down two to three quarters after recessions begin.

But the US economy is not in recession – in fact, it is booming in some respects. The latest estimate for Q3 GDP per the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is a whopping 5.8%.

The strong US economy will likely cause inflation to stabilize at levels higher than the Fed’s price stability mandate.

Within the next 3-6 months, we expect the narrative to pivot from ‘immaculate disinflation’ to ‘sticky inflation.’ 

3. The Path to Bitcoin’s Next Bull Market Will Likely Remain Volatile

Historically, Bitcoin experiences several 20 to 40% corrections in the years leading up to halvings. We experienced an 18% correction over the past ~month – something we have warned our audience about since April. 

We foresee two major tailwinds for Bitcoin in the next year:

We believe these two tailwinds will push Bitcoin north of $100,000 by December 2024, but the path to get there will continue to be rocky and likely back-end loaded. 

That’s a wrap! 

If you found this blog post helpful:

  1. Go to www.42macro.com to unlock actionable, hedge-fund caliber investment insights.
  2. RT this thread and follow @42Macro and @42MacroWeather.
  3. Have a great day!

Asset Markets And Global Liquidity

Earlier this week, Darius sat down with Anthony Pompliano to discuss all things global liquidity.

If you missed the interview, we have you covered. Here are three takeaways from the conversation that have significant implications for your portfolio: 

1. Private Sector Liquidity Is Driven By Currency Volatility And Interest Rate Volatility

There are two key drivers of private sector global liquidity:  

We track the US dollar and FX volatility via the USD REER and CVIX, respectively. Both of these measurements are inversely correlated to global liquidity.

Interest Rate Volatility is also a driver, where global liquidity usually lags behind movements in interest rates. Additionally, global liquidity typically follows bond market volatility, as measured by the MOVE Index. 

Much of global liquidity comes from the private sector. Generally, net international investment creditor economies like Europe, China, and Japan supply a large amount of liquidity from the private sector.

But risk aversion among those entities weighs on global liquidity in times of interest rate and currency volatility.

2. Global Liquidity Typically Lags Cyclical Movements In Growth And Inflation

Whereas currency volatility and interest rate volatility typically drive private sector liquidity, cyclical upturns and downturns in growth tend to drive public sector liquidity – meaningful slowdowns in growth generally result in increases in public sector liquidity and vice versa. 

Inflation also plays a key role in determining public sector liquidity trends, where meaningful cyclical upturns in inflation usually result in a decline in global liquidity and vice versa.

So, from a public sector perspective, central banks generally increase liquidity after slowdowns in both growth and inflation and remove liquidity after observing the opposite conditions.

3. Yes, The Liquidity Cycle Bottomed Last Fall, But Recovery Is Not Linear

Our 42 Macro Global Liquidity Proxy, the $ sum of global central bank balance sheets, global broad money supply, and global FX reserves minus gold, shows that we are in a liquidity cycle upturn and that October 2022 marked the bottom.

However, since April – when we explicitly told investors to book gains at ~$30k Bitcoin – we have been preaching that recovery is not linear like it usually has been in previous cycles. The global liquidity impulse has been negative ever since.

In recent months, the 3-month momentum impulse of global liquidity, we saw a $4 trillion decline in global liquidity in June and a $2.4 trillion decline in July. 

Although those readings do not indicate an environment beneficial for asset markets, they are improving at the margins.

All told, 2023 is a great reminder of something we have been preaching all year: liquidity is not the only driver of asset markets. Look no further than the divergence between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 over the past few months to understand this very important point. 

That’s a wrap! 

If you found this blog post helpful:

  1. Go to www.42macro.com to unlock actionable, hedge-fund caliber investment insights.
  2. RT this thread and follow @42Macro and @42MacroWeather.
  3. Have a great day!

China’s Structural Liquidity Trap Rears Its Ugly Head

The economic situation in China continues to be an unmitigated disaster, with the July Retail Sales, Industrial Production, and Fixed Assets Investment all slowing and missing consensus estimates.

Animal spirits in China are being weighed down by beleaguered private sector balance sheets. With respect to liabilities, China remains one of the most indebted major economies in the world. With respect to assets, China’s property market — the #2 asset for Chinese citizens behind bank deposits — has yet to recover from the beating it took from the 1-2 punch of “Zero COVID” and Emperor Xi’s “Three Red Lines” macroprudential policy.

All told, the Chinese economy is doing exactly what we thought it would do in the absence of large-scale fiscal stimulus — i.e., return to the structural liquidity trap it was mired in prior to COVID.

Macro Pro to Pro Live: Kris Sidial Recap

Earlier this week, Darius sat down with Kris Sidial from the Ambrus Group on 42 Macro’s Pro to Pro Live show to discuss reducing the cost of tail risk hedging strategies, investor positioning, #recession, and more.

Here are three takeaways from the conversation that have significant implications for your portfolio: 

1) If The Economy Does Not Enter Recession In The Next Quarter, US Corporations Will Be Underinvested And Understocked For A Soft-Landing

Over the past five quarters, 

If consumers continue to spend in line with recent trends (Real PCE on Goods increased 5.4% on a 3-month annualized basis in the most recent report), corporations will need to invest, kicking off a second wave of resilience in the economy.

We believe this second wave of the “Resilient US Economy” narrative will force more underpositioned investors to rotate off the sidelines and into stocks this fall.

2. Although We May See A Short Term Correction, Investor Positioning Implies More Right-Tail Risk In The Equity Market

The following positioning metrics are at levels consistent with local market tops:

Actual positioning in the futures and options market remains historically depressed.

As such, we believe a short-term correction could be the bear trap that leads to the final blow-off top in Q4 2023 or Q1 2024.

3) The Stock Market Typically Increases Leading Up to Recessions

Equities usually rally in the year leading up to recessions, returning a median of +16%, with an interquartile range of +14% to +20%.

They generate more than half of that return in the final three months leading up to a recession; blow-off tops in these late-cycle environments are the norm.

We expect the stock market will peak between October 1, 2023, and March 31, 2024, and we believe a crash will follow once market participants begin pricing in the Phase 2 Credit Cycle Downturn.

Until then, investors should continue riding the momentum wave higher.

That’s a wrap! 

If you found this blog post helpful:

  1. Go to www.42macro.com to unlock actionable, hedge-fund caliber investment insights.
  2. RT this thread and follow @42Macro and @42MacroWeather.
  3. Have a great day!

Fresh Evidence of Transitory GOLDILOCKS in the US Economy

The August University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment was marginally confirming of our “resilient US economy” theme.

Specifically, the Employment Survey – one of our “Fab 5” recession signaling indicators – ticked up to its highest level since Sep-22.

Additionally, the 1yr Forward Expected Change in Financial Situation Index ticked up to its highest level since Jul-21.

The August University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment was marginally confirming of the “immaculate disinflation” narrative as well. Specifically, the NTM and 5-10yr CPI forecast declined to their lowest respective levels since Mar-21 and Sep-22.